Democrats Take Lead in Congressional Ballot?
For the first time in about two-and-a-half years, a national Rasmussen survey finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, 41% to 40%.
Rasmussen tilts very Right. Nate Silver says that their results usually skew about 5% in favor of the Republican/GOP position. So this would mean that the actual numbers are 44/38, or something in that range.
Just because an organization “leans right” doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate. And just because PPP is a Democratic organization doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate either. Let’s be honest here.
From Slate:
Start with the sum method. Rasmussen and Gallup overlapped in four battleground states: the big three (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) plus Minnesota. In all four, Rasmussen beat Gallup. Rasmussen’s average error in these states was 3.3 points compared to Gallup’s 6.2. SurveyUSA overlapped with Gallup in the big three states plus Iowa. Again, the automated pollster whipped Gallup. SurveyUSA’s average error was 3.5 points. Gallup’s was 6.4. …
What happens to the pollster comparisons if we switch to the spread method? Both of the automated pollsters still beat Gallup. Head to head, SurveyUSA missed the spreads by an average of 2.3 points; Gallup missed by an average of 5.4. Rasmussen cleaned Gallup’s clock, missing the spreads by an average of 1.6 points compared to Gallup’s 6.2. Rasmussen also whipped Zogby, erring by 1.0 points compared to Zogby’s 3.2. But the contest between SurveyUSA and Zogby was tighter: The human pollster was off by an average of 3.6 points, compared to the robo-pollster’s 2.5.
The Wall Street Journal also agrees that Rasmussen was one of the most accurate, if not the most, in predicting election results.
Rasmussen found Democrats up 41%-40%. That doesn’t mean 44%-38% like you claim, it means 41%-40%. In fact, because Rasmussen is one of the more accurate pollsters, it’s probably right around 41%-40% as of today.
I’ve written this post just to show how liberals think. “That information was given by a conservative-leaning group, so the results must be inaccurate.” Of course, reality doesn’t work that way. The only thing that matters in reality is how the poll is conducted; and because Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster, I think they conduct it quite well.
The Democrats are up by 1% in this poll, yes. This isn’t a surprise, though:
The Democrats have been up since October. This is actually good for Republicans, because they’re only down 1% instead of the 6% and 4% they used to be down.
Thanks for spreading the good news for Republicans: we’re closing the generic congressional ballot gap!
(Source: politicalwire.com)
